WHAT has happened lately especially the war of words between US President Donald Trump and North Korea leader Kim Jong Un might have caused worries not only among many countries’ leaders that such conflicts might lead to World War III but also a leading analyst, who is afraid so with a reason.
The analyst said in his latest series on his Facebook page under the Thai name “The True Fable of the Legend on Spoof Trick into the Casserole” with almost 70,000 followers that the latest action by President Trump looked like the US is not only digging a trap for North Korea to be the world’s latest villain but also enticing China to show its clearer stance on North Korea. Which means the US is preparing its final action plan in order to maintain its dominant world leadership position.
As said earlier, after 25 years, the world power does not rest with the US alone anymore. The US is now being challenged by the new emerging power, namely, Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.
Before North Korea testing the H-bomb, the US seemed to be confident in its dominant power with superior arms to such an extent that if there is world war, it would suffer less and recovering faster than its opposite pole. It had arranged its allies to be the key players in the war. Japan, South Korea will have to deal with Kim Jong Un’s aggression while Israel will deal with Iran. Israel is believed to have around 20 A-bombs while Iran is believed to have 120, he said.
And who will contain Russia? He said NATO, which has quite a number of nukes, will do that. For China, the US is believed to handle China itself by moving 60 per cent of its warships to the Pacific area with the rest in Europe.
He pointed out however that such arrangement was before Kim’s testing of missiles in 2016. So adjustments by the US have been made since 2016 and now the US navy force in the Pacific has grown to much more than 60 per cent, he said.
At home, he said, the US has made major adjustment by bringing military generals into the White House. As published in the Boston Globe a week ago, headlined America’s slow-motion military coup, it says these days the junta system is making a comeback in, of all places, Washington.
It adds ultimate power to shape American foreign and security policy has fallen into the hands of three military men: Gen James Mattis, the secretary of defense; Gen John Kelly, President Trump’s chief of staff; and Gen H.R. McMaster, the national security advisor.
After that the US had changed its policy by imposing sanction against Russia, which later in the middle of August responded by sending 500 US diplomatic staff back home. At the end of August, Russia announced it planned to appoint a military general, who used to be a former deputy minister of defense to become a new diplomat at its embassy in the US. “It’s gone into a military mode,” he said.
But things changed again in September when Kim said he really had H-bombs, with his key message that he wanted the new weapon to stop the threats from the US and its allies.
North Korea was then on September 12 further sanctioned by the United Nations, with more US warships being moved towards Guam to be prepared for war at highest level, he analyzed.
He said the US is no longer in a defensive mode as that could put it at a disadvantage in any battle. By being on the offensive and taking the action first, that would be a great advantage if it is to be the winner than being attacked first.
However, he said, this time around it would be the US against the big four. That would make the situation more complex as the attack must be carried out at four different targets at the same time and if the four opponents combined well, the end result could be the opposite.
So right now the situation is quite tense and if the war really breaks out, it would be the deathly, highly devastating one for the world. It would be the short one though, he predicted.
He said he wished his forecast would go wrong as if WWIII really happened, it would be a huge loss to humanity for all time.
Top and inset: Murals depicting World War III by famous street artists Zé Carrión. Photo: R2hox (CC-BY-SA-2.0)
By ThaiResidents Reporter